2030 and the ZEV mandate – what does that all mean?

There has been much discussion in the media lately around the 2030 date for ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars and vans, and the ZEV mandate that sits behind it.

To fill you in on the ZEV mandate and all this talk about 2030/2035, here’s Vicky Edmonds, EVA England Board Director and Former Head, UK Office for Zero Emission Vehicles.

Where does the ZEV mandate come from, and what does it all actually mean?  

In the early 2000’s, worries about accelerating climate change and its potentially devastating global impacts were becoming more and more prominent, and governments around the world began to ramp up efforts to look for ways to reduce their country’s greenhouse gas emissions. In 2008, the world’s first legally binding climate change target was introduced here under the UK Climate Change Act. It required the UK to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. All industrial sectors including transport would need to play their part in achieving this level of emissions reduction, and the independent Committee for Climate Change (CCC) was set up to monitor how well the UK was doing at meeting that target.  

It was clear to the UK government and the CCC that electric would be the answer for light road vehicles – cars and vans. Electric cars were already in use, albeit in small numbers, they ensured zero greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions from the tailpipe, and they were cheaper than hydrogen cars. And, although still the subject of much debate, analyses showed that even taking into account emissions across the whole life cycle of the car – from production to use to end of life – electric cars came out on top. Electric cars also provided a massive opportunity for growth, with the electric vehicle market estimated to be worth £1-2 trillion by 2030.  

And so, in 2010, with the formation of the Office for Low Emission Vehicles, now the Office for Zero Emission Vehicles (OZEV), the Government began to nudge industry and consumers towards the production and use of electric cars – acting as one stop shop for discussions between industry, government and consumer groups, and providing grant funding to reduce the ticket price of the cars and the cost of the charging infrastructure for drivers and businesses.  

But concerns around climate change continued to gather pace. The world was seeing more extreme weather events, with flash floods, extreme heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Governments were striving to strengthen their climate pledges. Here in the UK, in 2019, the target in the Climate Change Act was made stronger and we became the first country in the world to commit to achieving net zero by 2050 (i.e. achieving a balance between the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced, and those removed from the atmosphere – through natural carbon sinks or through the use of technology). With EV uptake at only a few % of the car market, OZEV’s approach of nudging people and businesses in the right direction wasn’t enough. Far stronger intervention was needed.  

In 2020, the government consulted on and then introduced an ambition to end the sale of pure petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, and of plug-in hybrid cars and vans by 2035. This ambition was backed up by existing grant funds but also by around £1bn to accelerate the installation of public charging infrastructure, and by using the new AEV Act 2018 to introduce regulations to improve the consumer charging experience (such as payment processes and reliability).  

At the time, the 2030 ambition was just that – an ambition, and not legally binding. So last year the government introduced a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate in the UK.

It requires car makers to make sure a certain proportion of their car and van sales are electric each year – rising from 22% of new car sales this year to 80% in 2030, and 100% in 2035. Despite the very public debate and back and forth around the overarching 2030 ambition, it is this legally binding ZEV mandate which is most important. Whilst the media headlines, fuelled by intense speculation around consumer demand for electric cars, suggest the Government is now consulting on slowing down this mandate, that is unlikely to be the case. At COP29, the Prime Minister committed to tightening the UK’s climate change targets even further – with a reduction in UK emissions of 81% by 2035 – and the ZEV mandate will be a critical part of that commitment. The Government is therefore likely to be consulting on the detail that sits behind those targets and whether it can make the transition to electric cars easier and less costly for the industry.  

It is for governments to lay these regulatory and policy frameworks and provide the supporting funding and policies to deliver them. It is for industry to respond, and for consumers to feel confident in their choice of car.

That is why organisations like EVA England are so important. They provide valuable support to us as drivers on that journey, and give us a voice back into industry and government to ensure that the cars and their infrastructure really work for us.

And our voice has never been more critical in advocating for consumer demand than it is now.